Jennifer Saba

NEW YORK Total advertising revenue for the newspaper industry is expected to decline 11.5% to $40.1 billion this year, according to the Newspaper Association of America.

The organization forecast that by 2009, ad revenue declines would not be as steep — total ad revenue is expected to drop 5.5% to $37.9 billion that year.

The loss of dollars in 2008, which if the NAA proves to be correct will be the largest decline the industry has seen since the association started tracking results 58 years ago, is due to plunges in print advertising. The forecast is in the September issue of Press Time.

But what is very troublesome is the slowdown in online ad revenue growth. The NAA estimates that in 2008, it will still be in positive territory, up a scant 1.8%. In Q2 of this year online ad revenue fell for the very first time, down 2.4%. However, the organization expects that in 2009, online ad revenue will advance 9% — hardly close to the double-digit growth rate of 2007.

Jennifer Saba (jsaba@editorandpublisher.com) is E&P’s associate editor.